Defence Beyond Design: Contours of India's Nuclear Safety and Security by Sitakanta Mishra

Author:Sitakanta Mishra [Mishra, Sitakanta]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: International Relations, Ethnic Studies, History & Theory, Diplomacy, Social Science, Political Science, World, Asian, Regional Studies, General
ISBN: 9781351987059
Google: CCYlDwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 35036241
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2017-04-21T00:00:00+00:00

Assessing Capability and Motivation

Though terrorism is a major challenge before India and modern-day terrorists intelligently leverage communication and financial networks, the probability of a nuclear terror incident may be determined by factors like: (1) location of nuclear facilities (source of the radioactive material); (2) area of operation of the terrorist groups; and (3) their capabilities and motivations.

With the killing of Osama bin Laden, the fate of Al Qaeda is in question. However, it is the only terrorist organisation believed to have the capacity to resort to nuclear terrorism, if it so desires. The 9/11 incident is a demonstration of its intent and reach. While no direct act of terrorism in India by Al Qaeda has been reported yet, its members and many pro-Al Qaeda, Pakistani pan-Islamic jihadi organisations have been active in India, especially in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), since the 1990s. These are the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT), and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). The HUJI of Bangladesh, known as HUJI (B), believes in Osama bin Laden’s religious call to consider it a duty to acquire Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).44

Before 9/11, Al Qaeda’s attitude towards India or even Kashmir hardly figured in its statements. Since 9/11, and with the evolution of the Indo-US strategic partnership, references of threats to India have been more frequent. The US support to India on Kashmir, and India’s relations with Israel are other major reasons for this. In an audio message disseminated in April 2006 in the wake of the visit of President George Bush to Afghanistan, India and Pakistan in March 2006, Osama Bin Laden projected global jihad as directed against the “anti-Islam conspiracy of the Crusaders (Christians), the Jewish people and the Hindus.”45 Previously, there had never been a reference to Hinduism in his pronouncements. Though the exact interest of Al Qaeda in nuclear terrorism is not known, documents found in Afghanistan reveal that while Al Qaeda’s efforts to make nuclear weapons are less than adequate, it is determined to get them and willing to use them.46 One report says that the idea of attacks on nuclear power stations by Al Qaeda, perceived to be raised in the early stages of the planning of the 9/11 attacks, was vetoed, apparently by Osama Bin Laden himself, perhaps because of the enormous resources and sophisticated technology required.47 But this does not discount the probability of Al Qaeda acquiring such capability in the future. In any case, with the level of technological expertise it has, it may able to fabricate a Radiological Disposal Device (RDD) or Intermediate Nuclear Device (IND). The same is the case of other smaller jihadi groups. They can attempt sabotage of a facility, fire rockets or throw hand grenades into a facility. At the extreme, they can attempt a suicidal attack, similar to 9/11—hijacking an aircraft and crashing it on the premises of a nuclear facility.

The second grave threat to Indian nuclear facilities would be from the Naxalites. In 2006, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called the Naxalites “the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by our country.

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